NRL Expert Tips | Finals Week 2 | Sharks v Cowboys Free Game Preview 2024

Moore Park
-4.5 market line
46.5 total points (market position)

• Top 4 losers’ week one of finals series have an 83% win strike rate in week two
• Sharks have just 1 finals win from last 10
• Cowboys have won 3 of last 4 finals games v Sharks
• Last 5 Sharks-Cowboys games have produced 44pts or more

Interesting contest to say the least! Sharks off a loss and now staring down the barrel of 8 successive finals defeats (and just 1 win of their last 10) v the Cowboys who have now won 12 of their last 15.

Was the 14-10 halftime scoreline in the Storms favour last Saturday somewhat deceptive.. their were periods of the first half where the Storm dominated and then periods where the Sharks did well to fight back to a closer gap, but then the second half was all one way traffic and momentum as the Sharks were completely overrun to a 37-10 defeat. Their errors were punished, field position became dominant and then their defensive efforts crumbled.

The second half stats were ugly and telling. Storm had 70% of the ball with 26 sets to 9, the Sharks made 6 errors and 26 missed tackles and completely trampled with the Storm running 991m to just 308m in return (and not one Shark forward running more than 81m), and a staggering post contact metres tally of 312 to 83. To be honest very luck that it was 37 and not 57 such was the dominance.

There’s no doubt that the Sharks have been far better than this, but up against the pointy end of the table they have faulted very poorly. Now can they pick themselves up and go again, and certainly lift considerable.

They remains doubt on Ramien playing which would certainly again leave them very venerable in defence in both centre spots on either side.

It wasn’t all clear sailing for the Cowboys either, at home they to took some time and a half time rev up to lift from a 4-12 deficit and a near perfect Ponga masterclass to get out with a final 28-16 result, flattered by the late 6 points seconds from full time.

I thought it was clear they were feeling some pressure and expectation playing at home, and whether tight or a bit off half time couldn’t have come quicker enough for Payten to give them a good shake up and get them back on track. They were noticeably far better straight after the break. Cotter was outstanding, Dearden not far behind him.

While there has been some patchy rubbish amongst it winning 12 of the last 15 has to carry some respect, and like the Sharks some of their best has been very credible winning footy. They still can get loose in D and get sucked in to playing touch footy, but I think a finals match up and series can bring a more committed approach to the tougher stuff.

Gee I think the mental approach to this game is a big part of what unfolds. Fitzgibbon is a high quality coach, but what baggage do that bring, aside from starting strong can they maintain it and they’ll need some of their best for key leaders notably Hynes, Trindall and Kennedy. On the other side of the fence is the Cowboys, underdogs, no expectation or pressure, off the Sydney, I think this suits them to a tee! Far less pressure to last week, lets get in and play some footy and back ourselves.

Both teams have some attack strike and it’s no coincidence that at each of their last 5 match ups we have seen 44 or more points scored and some edge defence has been optional..

This years match ups are all square, the Sharks romped to a 42-6 win at home in rd 7, but the Cowboys regrouped with a 30-22 victory in rd 21. The Cowboys have always struggled at Shark Park, but the scheduling of this now at Moore park is a big plus for them. The Cowboys won their first match at the new Allianz Stadium with a mid-season upset of the Roosters this year and won a pair of 2017 finals at the pre-refurbished venue in the past, so they’ll have no issue playing here especially off that earlier season result when very undermanned v the Roosters.

I’m with the Cowboys to upset and win outright and the plus 4.5 position looks a nice healthy spot. I thought 2.5 looked the mark between them, but also with some caution on what you think the Sharks bring, and how long they can maintain that. I want to be with the relaxed, who cares (sort of) lets play some footy and let the ball do the talking Cowboys approach.

As mentioned earlier these two normally loosen up and provide points. With Klein in control it’s worth noting that his games have also been providing points this season, of the 22 club games that he has done season to date the av. Points a game has been 48 and 14 of them have gone 46 or more.. The market is set at 44.5 so 46 looks well within reach, albeit a semi final, it might well be a loose one. My lean is with the over.

With Cowboys, like the +4.5