NRL Tips Round 2 | Free

NRL Tips Round 2 | Free Game Preview

Thursday, March 13

Knights vs. Dolphins at McDonald Jones Stadium 8:00pm

Newcastle
+4.5 market line
46.5 total points (market position)

Knights have won last 3 head to head

Small margin opening round winners the Knights host the small margin first-up losers the Dolphins in Newcastle.

After an error-riddled first-half performance, the Knights grafted out a 10-8 win over the Tigers in Campbelltown – largely on the back of Kalyn Ponga’s brilliance at both ends of the field, and some big plays from Dylan Lucas, new five-eighth Fletcher Sharpe and big winger Greg Marzhew. Adam Elliott returns to the bench for Brodie Jones in the Knights’ only change.

The Dolphins were heavily impacted by the weather event in Queensland, ultimately going down to Rabbits 16-14 in their relocated clash at Parramatta. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was a standout, Daniel Saifiti made a strong club debut and Jamayne Isaako scored two tries, but direction was lacking. They now get Kodi Nikorima and Mark Nicholls back while Oryn Keeley comes into the back-row with Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Connelly Lemuelu ruled out.

I thought the outs of the two big backrowers, Finefeuiaki and Lemuelu, were significant. They are both very damaging big bodies on an edge.

The Knights have a 3-1 advantage in this rivalry, winning the last three encounters – including an 18-14 eclipse at Suncorp in Round 8 last year and a 14-6 victory at home in the final round in what was a straight shootout for eighth spot.

The Dolphins have won only one of their last seven interstate matches, while the Knights went 7-5 at home last season. The Knights back at home is key as this is where, over the last two seasons, they have players their best footy; I just hope we see a lot more work on the set-up and construction of their attack, in particular looking to open holes and put runners through, and or some edge overlap. It was also noticeable last week that Ponga played much more to his right when he traditionally favours his left.

The Knights line record at home has been strong, they have covered 8 of the last 11 here and covered the line 6 of the last 8 when the fav.

Thought the other angle here that I also now want to play is the total points under. The Knights D was again strong last week, and this strength helped them make the finals last year; while the Dolphins also started with a strong offering and it’s worth noting that when Woolf was coaching in the UK, his foundation was defence. The points under has a strong leaning through the opening rounds (number one focus for many teams) while even more so when we have an interstate team playing (68%). Of the Knights last 6 home games the points have hit under 5 times.

With the Knights being well suited at home, Dolphins off another hard week with travel and training dislocation. Also like the total points under and a game that can end up low 40’s points or less.