NRL Tips Round 21 & Free Game Preview

Wollongong
-10.5 market line
47.5 total points (market position)

Dragons have covered the line at all of last 5 games v Panthers, and at 7 of the last 9
Dragons at Wollongong are 14 from last 18 at covering the line
Dragons at this ground as an underdog have covered the line at 9 of last 11
Dragons have won 7 of the 9 games v Panthers at this ground
Panthers as a road fav are only a 50% record at covering the line
Panthers last 5 games have been have only covered the line at 2 of the last 9 v Dragons

Somewhat staggering on paper the overall record that the Dragons have when playing the Panthers in this set up, in Wollongong.

In addition it has become obvious that this season the Dragons have performed very well (and to advantage) when playing at home, in particular then when at home at Wollongong winning all 3 (and covering the line in all 3) including surprise upset wins over Warriors and then Eagles. They certainly grow a leg here..

Add then to this the Dragons come off a rare Away win (in Brisbane) where they started very strongly and got out to a commanding lead, then a bye freshen up and are all but with all players available to go here. I’d suggest with the benefit of the bye Flanagan has worked on having them set and ready to go.

Panthers conversely are wanting to build up in to their run home into the finals and be peaking toward their best in 5 to 6 weeks time. Certainly they will be winning most games given their quality, but right now they also have their best player returning one game back from a longer term injury out, a further four players off a very physical and arduous Origin rep period and are also missing Edwards, Alamoti and May from their strongest line up of all but 6 to 8 weeks ago.

As suggested, no doubt the quality of the Panthers and where they are headed but as the decent challenge and near victory from the Dolphins last week showed they are somewhat suspect and venerable through these current weeks as they start to refresh, taper and then wind up into August. Here they also face a big sized opponent who like to whack through the middle and edges and play a very physical game coupled with field position, and then try and turn any opportunity into points. At times they lack mobility and can be run around, and or periods of concentration and lazy defence, which is why the market has them 10.5 underdogs..

On my numbers I think the market is rating the Panthers up to their near best, and the Dragons lacking a little respect for winning 4 of their last 6 and playing at this venue. I marked it 8 (7.5) between them and gave the Dragons a healthy chance with the plus line position of 10.5 or higher.

Tip: Panthers

Play: Dragons +10.5