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State of Origin | Free Preview | Game 2 | 2023

 

NRL Tips | Preview | State of Origin | Game 2 | 2023

MrG’s handicaps, recommended plays and preview notes for this State of Origin clash

QLD v NSW

Ground: Suncorp, Brisbane

-6.5 market line

37.5 total points (market position)

 

Venue

Second only Origin game in Adelaide.

Queensland have won 13 of the last 16 Origin games at the venue

Last 3 occasions that NSW have lost game 1 of the series they have then won game 2

 

Game 1 summary and snapshot

Game 1 QLD on a neutral ground (Adelaide) started +1.5 and won

Initial market reaction was for QLD to be put up as -2.5 favs, yet will be playing at home where they have a dominant record winning 13 of the last 16 Origin games

Game 1 with 7 minutes to go and 13 v 12 (QLD with a player in the sin bin) QLD came from behind to win with a scoring play, and then iced it with another.

During the game NSW had 67% of he games field position played at QLD’s end, and three times the in red zone opportunity, should well have won comfortably yet got beat

Both teams will improve you would expect off the learnings of game 1 and their potential teams and likely tactic changes.

NSW are with out 3 key position and or marquee players and have since in camp had a further 2 (Murray and Martin) who will play but who have been unable to train for the last 8 days.

 

Game Points

Game 1 is traditionally a tight low scoring contest as typically each team starts the series with a high focus on defence (11 of the prior 12 game 1 contests prior to this years game 1 had failed to top 34 points). Adelaide also offered up a damp and dewy ground after a few days of light rain prior to the game yet we saw 44 points against a an under/over position of 35.5 and at least 2 to 3 tries left out there that could and should have been scored.

Game 2 heads to Brisbane where the lead up weather has been warm and sunny, dry for weeks and we should see a dry fast track. Notably, the last use of the ground was 10th June (Broncos v Knights – 44 points) so there has been much less wear and tear through recent weeks (Super Rugby finished) so the ground staff would have had a free run of 12 days of prep to have the ground surface in good shape.

I expect that we will see an attacking game and plenty of points, and certainly over the 37.5 mark. Dry fast track and a ground that normally leads to open play and points coupled with what looks an up tempo game style and two teams who will have an attack intent, in particular NSW who need to win to stay alive and to do so will need to play some attack and footy and not die wondering.

 

Coaches; team selections; tactics and questions

  • Since taking over as QLD Origin coach Slater has now won 3 of the 4 head to head v Fittler
  • I have had expressed here concern and criticism for much of Fittler’s selections and tactics through the last 3 years that he has been in charge of NSW, and none more so than (again) after game 1 2023
  • The NSW starting forward line up and the bumbling use of rotations was staggering, and looked like someone trying to outsmart the opposition who only outsmarted himself.
  • Paulo, Martin and Murray are three high quality proven international rep forwards yet all three started off the bench; Martin came on after 20 mins and Paulo and Murray after 30 mins. By this stage NSW were chasing the game down 0-10..
  • Martin played middle, then left edge when he’s made is name with his best form through the last 18 months on the right edge (or middle); Paulo a 10 min stint into half time, 10 mins after and then the final 8 mins of the game, I’d suggest a 20 min starting role and then early second half 15 to 20 min role would have been far more advantageous to the NSW cause through the middle.
  • I was not a fan of selecting Pangai Jnr nor starting him (and Young (both rookies) in Game 1) who had for mine paper thin form and a record for ill discipline and error. He is now discarded. That now makes it 9 or 10 players who Fittler has selected who then have only played one game and then been discarded. Maybe the selections have been the issue, not the individuals form?
  • I’m not a fan of playing rookies in make or break games, NSW now have two more and Hudson Young is playing just his second outing – all 3 of them in key forward roles.
  • NSW have now been dealt a harsh blow with injury outs, Cleary, Koroisau and again Latrell Mitchell unable to play. The selection of Moses and Cook looks fine, Moses is in career best form and has a quality kicking game and can play width well; Cook also has been in quality club form and brings a dangerous role out of dummy half with his speed, I’d like to see NSW start with Robson and then bring Cook on after 20 to 25 mins and fresh let him have more impact. Hynes has been discarded, Crichton will play left centre (NSW’s best back in game 1) and Utoikamanu replaces Pangai Jnr.
  • QLD have three injury forced changes with Gilbert, Arrow and Cobbo replaced by Nanai, Fotuaika and Coates. I suspect Cotter will start right edge and Nanai be used off the bench as a right edge impact back rower. I didn’t like the selection of Coates, has major issues in defence and under focused game pressure I’d have thought the experience of Gagai even on the wing would have been to option.


Game Preview

NSW had to chase the game in game 1, Fittler needs to change that here and start with his strongest forward line up.

After chasing the game NSW were unlucky not to lead by at least a try into half time, and then with 10 minutes to go had got themselves into a winning position only to have the game stolen away from them.

So often Origin is about winning the key moments and at this stage with 8 or so minutes to go QLD did what they have been prepared to do now for their last four outings and that is play with the ball and width coming out of their own end and try and make things happen, firstly Munster wide left edge and a 60 mtr game turning try and then minutes later down the right and a front rower leap and support pass try to seal the result.

Slater has shown a well prepared team that is also prepared to play various forms of attack to try and break things up and create advantage; play width, play width out of their own end, play the stock standard stuff down the middle but also play numerous set play shots with short side raids; off penalty restarts or off a set scrum. Half breaks, a line break, a key NSW tackle miss or a try not only put them into the game or back into the game but lifts their belief and confidence.

NSW have played a pretty much sterile stock standard attack approach, the majority of which has been to play off a centre field position and go forward, some variation plays to open holes down main street for a Tedesco or Murray (and or now Cook) and or to count numbers and play left or right to either overlaps or at spot targets. But QLD have found this easier to defend, and have more often than not been able to hold their middle and then play up and in from their outside and cut down either half with the ball or shut down the movement.

In game 1 NSW had three times more time with the ball and attack set up in the QLD redzone yet got beat. Three times more, at Origin level, the best of the best.. There is a problem somewhere with plan, set up and execution.

I though QLD took so much (as you would) out of stealing the game late and winning (belief) to NSW looking mentally shot and devastated (naturally) and then the body language both on the ground and in the rooms post game did not look good for NSW. Does this haunt them if this develops into a tight. close pressure game at the caldron?

There is no doubt that the venue is now a major advantage, with QLD having won 13 of their last 16 here, they have a unique level of belief and very vocal atmosphere and support here.

NSW have a point to prove, a coach playing for his future and a series they need to square up – they can certainly win. They were very close last start, if they’d rolled out a number of things differently with their forward line up and rotations I suspect they should have and would have won. But that’s not the first time they have got these key things wrong and again the risk (if not hope) is that this time they get it right..

6.5 between them at the line is a big gap at Origin, and certainly so now with QLD to carry this as the pronounced fav. Longer term I have liked many underdogs at the line in Origin as the contest is so often so close, and with the backs against the wall +6.5 looks a healthy position for NSW backers.

I have said previously I took the early next day after game 1 position of QLD -2.5 -> playing game 2 at home off the strength of sealing the late win looked a good spot. I’m with QLD to win, but not at 6.5.

As suggested above I do expect we see plenty of points. NSW have to change a few things up tactically, and I expect that they do, Cook and his role will be key, as will Moses. If they can set it up properly and get them better ball I also think NSW has some advantage down each outside edge, and certainly I’d be making both QLD wingers key targets. So NSW need to play attack and take the game to QLD, we already saw 44 points in game 1, on a dry fast track I think we see more of the same and plenty of attacking play and options from both teams, and if most of it sticks then plenty of points.

As with game 1 I’m with QLD here again. The coach always appears to be very well prepared and has built a unit that digs in and works hard. Now on their home track I expect this will take them a long way.

Tip: QLD

Best Bet: Points Over 37.5 $1.90

Best Play in backing QLD: QLD 1-12 $2.91

Best Play backing NSW: NSW +6.5 $1.90

 

Bets for Pass It On Clothing Charity c/ Topsport

Our Market Watch podcast 3 Any Time Try Score options for Origin 1 are –

Fifita $3.50 (Gerard)

Toó $2.57 (Jimmy)

Nanai $3.50 (Tristan)

Bet option now available at Topsport –

Any 2 of Fifita, Toó or Nanai to score a try

$4.50

Bet Option Link Here


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NRL expert tips. Mr G provides our NRL expert tips and game previews. Professional analysis from an experienced pro. Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr.G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering. Mr.G now provides our subscribers with his NRL expert tips game previews and recommended NRL sports betting tips. Mr.G’s NRL tips betting plays and previews combine his knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the NRL betting markets.

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