State of Origin | Free Preview | Game 3 | 2023

Coaches; team selections; tactics and questions

NSW

1. James Tedesco 2. Brian Too 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Bradman Best 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cody Walker 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Damien Cook 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Liam Martin 12. Keaon Koloamatangi 13. Cameron Murray

14. Isaah Yeo 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Reece Robson 17. Clinton Gutherson

QLD

1. AJ Brimson 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan

14. Ben Hunt 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Moeaki Fotuaika 17. Corey Horsburgh

Suggestions through recent days are that Harry Grant will likely start at #9 for QLD and swap roles with Ben Hunt then to play of the bench. Final starting line ups will be named 1 hour prior to kick off.

• Since taking over as QLD Origin coach Slater has now won 4 of the 5 head to head v Fittler
• For game 3 NSW have made 7 changes and pending the final starting team what could be up to 10 positional changes since game 2. Luai, Paulo, Frizell, Utoiakamanu and Young have been omitted while Haas is now out injured.
• QLD have two forced changes with two out in Walsh and Flegler, Brimson and Horsburgh who have been this the larger series squad now come in
• I have had expressed here concern and criticism for much of Fittler’s selections and tactics through the last 3 years that he has been in charge of NSW, and none more so than (again) in games 1 and 2 of this series
• NSW for game 3 have made seven changes and I believe since Fittler has been coach this is now the 7^th occasion he has made seven changes. Unless you have four or five injuries surely then making seven changes (and on multiple occasions) raises the obvious concern of having not got it right the first or second time?
• Again we see players selected, given very little game time and then dropped and discarded after just one game. Utoikamanu now joins a long list that I believe is now 10 or 11 of players picked and discarded after one outing under Fittler.
• For mine the biggest issue has been the starting forward line up and then rotations. In game 1 we saw Paulo, Martin and Murray start off the bench,  three high quality proven international rep forwards and there after NSW have to chase the game from being down 0-10. We again saw something similar in Game 2, plus the obvious use of having to chew up Cook as a centre replacement when he was originally selected for his speed and skill at #9
• With Cody Walker now being recalled and the selection of Koloamatangi and the likely bench mark up NSW are clearly looking for better attack execution and more points. The Moses + Walker combination has some positives, both can play either edge, down short sides, side by side and or with greater width should NSW be really looking to change things up

Game Preview

NSW have everything to play for, if good enough. Down 0-2 in the series, at home they’ll want to try and save some face with a win.

Given the multiple NSW team changes I expect that they are looking to play plenty of ball shift and attack. The Moses and Walker combination in the halves should play to this focus, both have strengths of running the ball, playing width or short side raids, and are each well accustomed to playing width together which I think is a far more positive approach than the “from the middle, halves either side” approach that Fittler has had for the last few games (and series).

The key to the game, and result for mine is how QLD turn up. More often than not the norm is a 2-1 series result, and on many occasions when we have a 2-0 leader into the final game the motivation drops as they have already climbed the mountain – we have only seen two 3-0 series results in the last 22 years. But, all the positive body language, talk and energy through this series has been with QLD and very strongly led by Billy Slater and I sense a steely focus here to go on with the job and create their own new piece of history. I’m sure there is also a motivation that the final mountain to climb is getting a 3-0 result done with the final game in NSW.

Conversely while they have had a tough series up against it with the long list of key quality outs, since the 73^rd minute of game one when QLD snatched back the lead everything about NSW has been down a slope. QLD’s two late tries in game 1 looked to then shatter NSW mentally, they looked completely shot through the final minutes and then as leaving the field and were then towelled up 32-6 in Brisbane. Now seven further changes, plenty of negative talk, it all looks a lot like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as the inevitable approaches..

The other strength that QLD bring is their effort areas. They just keep turning up in defence, their final 20 mtrs scramble defence has been outstanding as has some of their single moment efforts like the Cherry-Evans chase down of Crichton and that then on the next play QLD had 10 players back in their defensive line while NSW were still looking for support attack players..

On the key market positions, QLD at home for game two started at -6.5 and won comfortably. We now move to Homebush and this market line originally opened 1.5 between them, then with the news of Haas as an injury out and then final teams it now sits at 3.5 History tells us that NSW certainly have had a winning advantage here winning 8 of the last 13 but I would mark this at least a 5.5 position as a starting point given the QLD dominance of game two and now the overall quality and long list of NSW outs. The slight unknown is being a dead rubber game what might be the QLD motivation, by I expect that this won’t be an issue and that they will be all in here. 

Keen to be with QLD here and that they go on and win comfortably, mentally I just think they are way too strong and likely 13+ result would be of no surprise. I think the game opens up, that NSW will bring some attack and points and that QLD will be happy to reply and accommodate and we will see an open attacking game on a dry track with plenty of points and a score total toward the high 40 game pts and an over 41.5 result.

Tip: QLD

Bet Options:

QLD -3.5 $1.90

QLD 13+ $3.30

Points Over 41.5 $1.90

Plays for Pass It On Clothing Charity c/ Topsport

Game Result:

Gerard – points over 41.5

Jimmy – tri bet either team wins under 6.5

Tristan – QLD -3.5

Our Market Watch podcast 3 Any Time Try Score options for Origin 3 are –

Nanai $3.15 (Gerard)

Brimson $2.78 (Jimmy)

Tabuai-Fidow $2.50 (Tristan)

Bet option now available at Topsport –

Any 2 of Nanai, Brimson, Fifita, Tabuai-Fidow to score a try

$3.50

Bet Option Link Here

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