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NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 3

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NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 3 Preview. Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is an avid student of the game and provides his NRL Tips and previews each week at Reading The Play. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Gerard provides his expert NRL tips and content each week for our Reading The Play followers and subscribers.

NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 3 | 2024

Venue & Decider

QLD at home at Suncorp Stadium and or if for a decider which ever way you slice it is a massive long term advantage.

At this ground deciders QLD have won 11 of the last 13

NSW will take some solace in the fact that the 2 deciders they won here were each off the back of a very decisive Game 2 win and maintaining that form into the final game of the series.

nrl tips state of origin mcg melbourne

Weather

Typical Brisbane sunny winter day, clear, no likely rain and to top of 17. Forecast here

Ref

Klein so we’ll see his typical mess at the play the ball and ruck and a shorter 10mtrs.

Penalties – very telling stat for all Origin game played at Suncorp Stadium, of the total number of penalties 792 QLD have received 63% NSW 37%

Home ground and atmosphere at this ground always a very telling influence..

Team changes and likely set ups

QLD have multiple changes, Ponga, Cobbo, Gagai and Capewell come in, Coates and Taulagi out with injuries and Su’A excluded.

NSW have Best and Barnett as ins, Mitchell out injured and Olakau’atu excluded.

Some interesting and key changes. Latrell Mitchell has been in outstanding quality form so a significant out (and market reaction); the Ponga in also notable and I expect he will be used off the bench from late first half onward at #13 and or #6 with an attack focused role. I like the NSW inclusion of Barnett as it adds further big body muscle to their middle field play. Best was a stand out at left centre last season at this level and has been in recent quality form so a handy step in replacement for Mitchell.

QLD has some defensive issues in game 2 down a few key channels (Su’A on right and Holmes on left) and so bring in Gagai, Capewell and Cobbo and some flexibility with Holmes playing centre or wing.

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Overview

The tactics and play of this game very intriguing and the key to how it all unfolds, and then the likely victor.

NSW into game 2 got the team the coach had wanted for weeks but for injury outs with the very significant player ins of Mitchell, Edwards, Moses, Murray and Watson. Then 13 on 13 they went up a level and physically belted and manhandled QLD, dominating the physicality, field position and quickly then the scoreboard.

A number of things stood out. NSW looked very up, focused and lots of intensity, and a game plan of really muscling up and looking to dominate physically. And they did. Down the key channels of the field, the middle and then each edge (second rower and centre) they had the size, muscle and physicality to dominate, and played to this strength bot with and without the ball with QLD unable to match, stop, stand up to or go with it. QLD got some more ball and momentum and some opened up tempo play then through the second half which suited them and squared up with some points, but the horse had long bolted.

So with all but the same line up into game 3 NSW’s intent and tactics are very obvious and will remain the same.

Coach Slater is some what boxed into a corner with his approach and response as he doesn’t have much in the way of forward or big body depth to go to and sure up his middle as key injury outs mean he has not had Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Flegler or Tom Gilbert available (and is missing Munster at #6). So I am sure his intent and tactics here will be to play a very alternative plan and pattern and try and play quick open attack, lots of ball shift, try and run the big NSW side around, expose mobility, play outside in (play wide then back through the middle) and use Walsh and or then with Ponga back through the middle with short outside or inside pass options and their darting acceleration to open things up.

The good thing for a viewing fan is we don’t have a stooge game set up of two teams trying to out beat each other with a similar game plan, and an 80 minute physical game of chess. I expect we will have two very contrasting styles of tactics and how they each attempt to play, and alternatively how the opponent can or can’t handle and defends what is coming. NSW will be a repeat of game 2, all grunt and muscle, bang through the front door and the middle 40% of the field; look to dominate yardage and then give their halves field position and some room to ball shift (or just roll over the top as Angus Crichton and Liam Martin did). QLD will want to be quick and up tempo, early ball shifts, let the ball sing and do their talking, outside in (quick shifts to the outside edges, then next plays back through the middle), and use Walsh and then Ponga and then their two centre winger (all with speed) combinations to advantage.

Some of the defensive tactics will also be different and key. QLD will be about slowing down the play the ball, laying on and wrestle to try and create more time to keep adjusting their defence set up, NSW will attempt something similar to shorten up the up tempo focus and will also look to play an up an in outside cut off of the ball and turn QLD back in which they did very well in game 2. The up an in defensive tactics of NSW will bring Walsh and Ponga into play for QLD, back down the middle, quick plays, short passes, inside or out.

What happens with the whistle will also be key. Does the game flow, are they on top of each other (short 10 and a mess at the play the ball) or is it allowed to open up; can the physical intent of NSW be allowed to dominate. The number of penalties and or 6 agains, when, where and any back to back influence could well be another factor. Klein’s style can be prone to a short 10 and or a run of back to back advantage and momentum, another interesting watch, while there is no doubt the influence a full house at this ground has had in the past.

If this was any other game than an Origin with the likely match up and game style I expect here then I’d be exceedingly confident the blue team win, and win comfortable enough (8 to 10 points). But Qld have made Origin what it is today off a history of being poked in the eye and responding, and none better when in a decider on home turf with the faithful’s screaming support! But I do like NSW and their set up. They are very close to full strength; each are in quality form; they have depth through the bench and a very obvious physical and muscle game plan – rinse and repeat of game 2. They also look to have a very unified close group (the out of Sydney time together camp approach) buoyed by the initial demolition result they achieved in Melbourne now focused that the job is not done yet. With a near even rub of the green and share of the ball I think their plan will be too hard to manage.

With the QLD intent of ball shift and attack then I do expect we also see points. On a cold damp night and ground in Melbourne we saw 56 points, certainly exaggerated by NSW’s dominance in the first half, but QLD also got some joy through the second 40 with their attack strike. I expect we are in for a high 40’s plus points game. A low Origin mark in the past has been 36 to 38; the markets are expecting a close tight game due to it profiling as an “everything on the line” decider, but with dry weather in Brisbane all week and how I expect this game unfolds then over 41.5 looks very likely.

Suggested Play Options

NSW to win $1.95
NSW +1.5 $1.85
Points over 41.5 $1.90

Any Time Try options
Lomax and To’o each scored 2 tries in game 2, add Bradman Best and work around these (Lomax and To’o, and Lomax and Best). Tabuai-Fidow and Walsh look the obvious for QLD.

My wide, rough anytime try plays would be Connor Watson $5.80 and Mitchell Barnett $7.50

Same Game Multi
I have taken these two same game multi plays with Topsport

Lomax anytime try x To’o anytime try x NSW win $6.00
Lomax anytime try x Best anytime try x NSW win $8.50

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NRL – MrG – Reading The Play

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is a long term avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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