
Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets | Melbourne Cup Flemington
Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets | Melbourne Cup Flemington Champion racehorse Saintly, who won the Melbourne Cup and WS Cox Plate double in 1996.
MrG’s handicaps, recommended plays and preview notes for this State of Origin clash
NSW v QLD
Ground: Adelaide
-1.5 market line
36.5 total points (market position)
Venue
Second only Origin game in Adelaide.
Prior game – Game 1 2020 contest – Queensland def. New South Wales 18-14
Points
Weather has been dam in Adelaide over the last 3 to 4 days so we’d expect damp under foot conditions and a tight arm wrestle style of game.
Game 1 historically is a tight offering, both teams normally with a high focus on defence and feeling each other out, their lines ups and general approach to play as they start the series.
11 of the last 12 game 1 contests have failed to top 34 points – so typical low scoring tight games.
Coaches
Interesting match up. Billy Slater certainly stood out as an impressive very well prepare coach last year stepping into his first ever coaching assignment with the head role for QLD, and they then won game 1 in Sydney as the obvious underdog and went on to win the series 2-1.
Fittler has been a bit of a roller coaster since his appointment, has been some nice wins and highs but also some low offerings most notably games 1 and 3 in the 2020 series loss to Wayne Bennett and then the game 3 loss last season. Fittler also has a questionable record in game 1 of each series with just just the 1 win in the opening game in his 4 series to date.
Team Selections, tactics and questions
Game 1 will also throw up many questions over team selections and then tactics and key weakness or outcomes through this opening game that will set the scene for the series.
Game Preview
Fittler and NSW have had a long off season and break to have absorbed the significant loss in the game 3 decider last year NSW, and how they were physically out muscled by a very motivated and aggressive QLD. He has clearly gone with Pangai Jnr and Young in his forward list to add some extra muscle and grunt to the balance of his forward line up.
In a tight affair QLD won game 1 last year (and then game 3) off the back of low errors, discipline and grunt mixed with some game smarts with the ball. In game 1 NSW made 10 errors (and multiple penalties) which all but rolled the red carpet out for QLD to step up. My concern with Pangai Jnr is that he is rocks and diamonds, and his last vein of diamond form was near 2.5 yrs ago, he’s been club hopping since and is prone to over playing his hand, key moments of ill discipline, basis errors and some poor defence. In his 6 club games to date this season he has not stood out consistently, made 7 errors, missed 15 tackles and caused numerous moments of ill discipline putting his team back on the back foot, all the sort of stuff that is such high risk and game turning points in Origin. He is going to need to be at his best, likely a 10% maybe 20% chance for his selection to pay off for Fittler.
Another key question and likely influence on how the game play unfolds is NSW at #9. Fittler looks caught between playing a known back up on rotation off the bench in Cook but then likely weakening his bench rotations late in the game or playing a makeshift back up for a period of play wither to start the game or at some stage mid game. It could be a masterstroke, or major risk and error. Meanwhile QLD sit quietly and smoke their pipe with the luxury of Hunt starting and then Grant coming on fresh and playing out 60 or so minutes with his potential of his individual brilliance and game changing play.
Game 1 traditionally settles in to an arm wrestle and is played predominately through the middle third of the field for much of the game, and become a high pace game of chess – who can dominate field position, dominate physically and or key error moments. This game profile looks no different, add in then that it is a neutral field and we will likely have damp under foot conditions – this looks all about the forward battle, the play and skill out of #9 and mistakes. The 7, 6 and 1 through this middle third for each team can also quickly change things in particular each #1 who have quality back up games and speed and slight of foot skill.
We look in for a quality series that also on paper from the outset looks tight and pretty evenly matched. I lean to the QLD forward line up and bench and have said for the last week this always looked a very even match up and something like $1.90 each and take your pick, the early +2.5 looked the advantage. If as expected the tight contest then I think the best angle play here is the Tri-Bet option, either team to win under 6.5 points $2.50 (6 of the last game 1 results have produced a margin of 6 points of less).
Total game points? The Under looks the obvious call given the history (11 of the last 12 Game 1’s not topping 34 points) but I’m happy to sit this out, you don’t need much to go wrong in the second 40 for it to breach 36. As an alternate angle tho with the expectation that the opening 40 minutes will be very tight I think the first half points under looks the right play – first half under 16.5 points
For those looking for anytime try score options, aside from the obvious market favs down each wing I like Walsh (3.50), Grant ($5.80) and Trbojevic ($2.60).
Summary
Tip: QLD
Bet Options: QLD with the start or the Tri Bet option for either team to win under 6.5 points
Game total points: under 36.5 – bet the option of first half under 16.5 points
Anytime Try: Walsh
Man Of The Match: Harry Grant
Bets for Pass It On Clothing Charity c/ Topsport
Our Market Watch podcast 3 Any Time Try Score options for Origin 1 are –
Walsh (Gerard)
Trbojevic (Jimmy)
Tabuai-Fidow (Tristan)
Bet option now available at Topsport –
Any 2 of Walsh, Trbojevic or Tabuai-Fidow score a try
$4.00
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Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is a long term avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
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Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets | Melbourne Cup Flemington Champion racehorse Saintly, who won the Melbourne Cup and WS Cox Plate double in 1996.
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This is not a bookmaking or wagering site.
We provide previews, opinion and recommended sports tips only.