Movers Shakers Sliders for NRL Season 2023

Movers Shakers Sliders

After many weeks of review and analysis this is how I now finalised my ratings and forecast the following likely table positions.

Of note. These ratings are finalised using a whole range of performance data across recent seasons, team list changes (ins and outs), home and away advantage/records, MrG’s personal feel and opinion and then a forecast simulation of all weekly results for this coming seasons. This criteria is utilised to finalise and forecast the likely final table positions. I have used this method for the past nine seasons with this methodology normally providing an accurate forecast of those expected to perform well (top 2, top 4, top 8) and those who look at significant risk and likely in the bottom half or bottom 4 of the final table. The obvious longer-term unknown is the impact of a new coach, list overhauls and or new major signings, luck with the draw and the obvious unknown impact of key injuries or off field indiscretions, however, in the final 8 weeks prior to the new season start I have worked through as much of this as possible to then piece together a ratings assessment.

The Pointy End: My Top 6

No surprises here and I think the top 6 are somewhat of a standout and have picked themselves. I have the Roosters as the likely benchmark and longer term are my team to beat (taken at $6.50).

Roosters
Panthers

Rabbits
Cowboys
Sharks
Storm

The Roosters come off a disjointed season last year with a slow start and then hampered all year long with key injury issues, have quality coach, system, list and depth. They overachieved on a number of occasions during the year and when they had a reasonably strong list available offered quality. Given all that unfolded they could have put the cue in the rack by Origin time but didn’t, I think we see them rise this season and look the benchmark team to beat.

The Panthers have a nice challenge. The back to back title holders have a quality system and coach but some key outs to cover for now in particular at #9 and the quality that has been Api Koroisau. I have revised their rating down and they sit at a similar position to those now around them (last season the clear top rated team). Sometimes having climbed the mountain the fire doesn’t burn as strongly for a season or two as the reshape and rebuild unfolds – they might not need much to go wrong to slide down the table a little. They are obviously amongst the mix of contenders but could well miss the top 4 (taken at $2.80).

The Rabbits, Cowboys and Sharks all look to be in and around the pointy end of the table. The Rabbits best is premiership material, if they can stay healthy and get a lot of games out of Latrell Mitchell they are a top two team and potential title challenger. The Cowboys have another nice draw, good home ground advantage, and love to attack but need to tidy up some of their defence leaks, and can concede too many points to the quality top 4 sides when it matteres. The Sharks look on the up, and are another that needs to tidy up some of the defence issues and match the top sides through the middle third but in year two under an astute coach they look to only be improving.

The Storm are a tricky review and forecast. The key changing of the guard is in their forward list that impacts up front, their middles and edges. And then how long is Pappy missing, is it 6 weeks or 12? They have an outstanding coach and system, significant home ground advantage, and always top 4 if not higher in defence.