Movers Shakers Sliders for NRL Season 2023
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Movers Shakers Sliders
After many weeks of review and analysis this is how I now finalised my ratings and forecast the following likely table positions.
Of note. These ratings are finalised using a whole range of performance data across recent seasons, team list changes (ins and outs), home and away advantage/records, MrG’s personal feel and opinion and then a forecast simulation of all weekly results for this coming seasons. This criteria is utilised to finalise and forecast the likely final table positions. I have used this method for the past nine seasons with this methodology normally providing an accurate forecast of those expected to perform well (top 2, top 4, top 8) and those who look at significant risk and likely in the bottom half or bottom 4 of the final table. The obvious longer-term unknown is the impact of a new coach, list overhauls and or new major signings, luck with the draw and the obvious unknown impact of key injuries or off field indiscretions, however, in the final 8 weeks prior to the new season start I have worked through as much of this as possible to then piece together a ratings assessment.
The Pointy End: My Top 6
No surprises here and I think the top 6 are somewhat of a standout and have picked themselves. I have the Roosters as the likely benchmark and longer term are my team to beat (taken at $6.50).
Roosters
Panthers
Rabbits
Cowboys
Sharks
Storm
The Roosters come off a disjointed season last year with a slow start and then hampered all year long with key injury issues, have quality coach, system, list and depth. They overachieved on a number of occasions during the year and when they had a reasonably strong list available offered quality. Given all that unfolded they could have put the cue in the rack by Origin time but didn’t, I think we see them rise this season and look the benchmark team to beat.
The Panthers have a nice challenge. The back to back title holders have a quality system and coach but some key outs to cover for now in particular at #9 and the quality that has been Api Koroisau. I have revised their rating down and they sit at a similar position to those now around them (last season the clear top rated team). Sometimes having climbed the mountain the fire doesn’t burn as strongly for a season or two as the reshape and rebuild unfolds – they might not need much to go wrong to slide down the table a little. They are obviously amongst the mix of contenders but could well miss the top 4 (taken at $2.80).
The Rabbits, Cowboys and Sharks all look to be in and around the pointy end of the table. The Rabbits best is premiership material, if they can stay healthy and get a lot of games out of Latrell Mitchell they are a top two team and potential title challenger. The Cowboys have another nice draw, good home ground advantage, and love to attack but need to tidy up some of their defence leaks, and can concede too many points to the quality top 4 sides when it matteres. The Sharks look on the up, and are another that needs to tidy up some of the defence issues and match the top sides through the middle third but in year two under an astute coach they look to only be improving.
The Storm are a tricky review and forecast. The key changing of the guard is in their forward list that impacts up front, their middles and edges. And then how long is Pappy missing, is it 6 weeks or 12? They have an outstanding coach and system, significant home ground advantage, and always top 4 if not higher in defence.
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Mid Table Log Jam
Likely 4 teams looking to slice into the two final spots for the top 8.
Eels, Raiders, Sea Eagles, Broncos
I don’t have a lot between each of these with a mid table log jam of sides as we start the season. I think the Eels look a potential risk and some obvious signs of regression with a list of quality outs and changes – I’m happy to risk Arthur’s men and have backed them to miss the top 8 (taken at $2.20).
The Raiders have a gift draw, made the 8 last year and at their best can mix it with the good ones, but can be Jekyll and Hyde. A soft draw doesn’t win you games but it sure as hell helps as the rubber hits the road during the season. If it all came together with the soft draw and a few opportunities opened up a top 4 spot might be a sneaky chance ($6.50).
The Sea Eagles are another who can be hard to place given the impact of their best player but look potential table climbers if it all comes together. There have been positive coaching staff changes (not just the head coach) and a refresh that was probably timely. The team list looks very fit, well drilled and couple of good signings and some quality youth coupled with what looks a preparedness to play attack. The experience of Foran and versatility of Walker as outs leaves a few questions but they have quality in DCE calling the shots and a marquee talent at the back – their best could be very good.
The Broncos are another with an obviously talented list but consistency and how many games they get from their marquee player in Adam Reynolds will be the key. They are a major watch of if they can get the right result at #9 and keep both Walsh and Cobbo healthy and playing most weeks.
On the improve but look still a year away from a possible finals spot
Bulldogs, Tigers, Titans, Warriors
Each of these sides is looking to rebuild, add key talent and signings and move forward up the table. Of note three of them also have new head coach and a coaching staff make over and approach and so the impact of this, attitude and how they look to play will be an interesting watch.
Overall they each look better than they have been, some positive changes list changes and improvement but still at least a year away from challenging for a bottom of the top 8.
A key thing to watch with each of these four is do we see improvement in defence? Each leaked way too many points most weeks last season and have much ground to make up in turning this around..
If we see a spike in weekly performance from any one or more of these teams then that will just add to the flavour of the season and the competition for spots in the base of the top 8.
Making up the numbers
Knights
Dragons
Dolphins
I have each the Knights and Dragons starting the season with a lower rating than what they finished last year and well and truly up against it all. I expect that both will provide more drama and negative media than any other team this year as they lurch along the roller coaster of their season ahead where losses will far outweigh wins and the focus will turn on to the head coach and those running the show. Both have underperformed through recent seasons and on the evidence of what is in front of us now it’s hard to see how this will change in 2023. I expect both clubs have new head coaches to start 2024 – It’s a No for me.
The Dolphins are up against it as a new franchise, short start up time, no concessions for cap or player transfers and now no marquee signings to begin their first season. The coach, culture and senior player experience are all positive ticks, but they will lack a gamebreaker, key quality and depth and as the wear and tear of a tough season starts to impact, I’m sure they have a tough road ahead. The positive will be the unearthing of some quality youth.
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Draw 2023
Firstly, lets acknowledge that the draw is not even and has significant holes and inequity in it every year, and much of its working are to suit a tv schedule and ratings. So many teams are disadvantaged, and many carry a higher load than others. There’s no doubt it plays a key factor on the final ladder positions.
vs my | play twice | play twice | vs last yrs | vs last yrs | vs last yrs | vs last yrs | plane | at | |
team | top 6 | bottom 3 | top 6 | top 4 | top 8 | bottom 8 | bottom 4 | travel | home |
Raiders | 7 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
Sharks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
Warriors | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 9 |
Titans | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 12 |
Bulldogs | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
Knights | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
Cowboys | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 12 |
Storm | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 11 |
Eels | 10 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Panthers | 9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Dragons | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
Rabbits | 9 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 10 |
Roosters | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
Tigers | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
SeaEagles | 10 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
Broncos | 10 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
Dolphins | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
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