NRL Expert Tips Storm v Panthers Grand Final Preview 2024

Overview

Defence
Panthers best defence 15.8pts per game, Storm 18.3pts per game

Attack
Storm best attack 29.9pts per game, Panthers 24.5pts per game

One stand out point against the Panthers is that the concede 56% of their tries on their right edge, notably with opponents targeting Tago, and the Cleary, Tago, To’o edge.

Both teams have stunning longer term records at the venue, especially in finals.

The Panthers are on an all-time record 11 match finals winning streak, and have won 12 of their last 14 at Accor Stadium (Homebush) including each of their Prelim Finals and Grand Finals since 2022.

The Storm have won grand finals at Homebush 1999, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2017 and 2020, as well as losing deciders there in 2006, 2008, 2016 and 2018. They have won only 2 of their last 4 at the ground beating the lowly placed Rabbits in their only game here in 2024.

Storm toppled the three time premiers twice this season, at home in rd 1 (8-0) and then away in rd 24 (24-22), after winning only one of the teams’ prior six match ups, two of which were preliminary final losses.

The loss of Nelson Asofa-Solomona is significant for the Storm, big body up front in both attack and defence and will mean Kamikamica starting and far greater use of the bench and likely Welch (only played 8 minutes last week).

The Panthers are expected to have Sorensen available which would be a quality in, high quality player.

With the Nelson suspension I mark it around $1.90 each take your pick, if not a small market edge to the Panthers.

Outstanding effort from the Panthers to now be in their 5th consecutive GF, but equally I’d suggest this is likely the weakest of the 5 line ups given the gradual loss of quality talent each year. But there is no doubt there best can win, they still have quality big men through the middle, Yeo having another outstanding year, Edwards similar although a little worse for the wear and tear of a big season this year, quality #9 and two 5 star halves. Nathan has again shown in his return through recent weeks such quality, super v the Roosters on the back of some room to play off their big men and some smart tactical targeting from their coach while last week he was superb with some elite moments that took control and or turned the game well to their advantage.

Storm have been equally good and building nicely toward this, looking stronger and peaking with each outing. Elite spine players, more workman like than as damaging (as the Panthers) with their middles; look to target and set up their two edge backrowers more than most teams with damaging hole runs in the final 20m while the speed and sharpness in finishing of their back 5 is quality.

As even as it looks it is! You could spend hours trying to pull apart key stats and match ups and seriously there is very little between them; run mtrs, off loads, line breaks or defensive weakness or miss moments or ill discipline or error, but a struck match between them.

The Panthers smothering quality defence and field position play against a similar field position focus from the Storm but coupled with more ball running and set play set up interweaving hole opening options.

Certainly expect the Storm to play some high ball options at either edge on the goal line to the height of Warbrick or Coates over To’o and Turuva.
Meany and the Storms outside right edge defence will be a red dot focus for the Panthers, while I’m sure the Storm will be looking to isolate the Cleary + Tago defensive combination with their own red dot focus within 20 mtrs of the line (with Howarth).

Small lean to the Storm and their slight edge in building momentum. Have marked their two finals efforts higher and they on the up, but the nig fella is a big out. But significant respect to the father son Cleary, Ivan has a knack of having them right on the big days and very up, while his son has already build a highlights reel showing his freakish ability to turn and stamp a game, circa the final 15 minutes of magic just 12 months ago.

While all the key stats point heavily to a lower points score (under 40.5) I lean to the over position. It will be dry and warm and a fast track, and likely very little penalty or 6 again influence (hallelujah) and so I am expecting from the 25 min marl or there abouts onward we’ll see the attack starting to open things up, and more of it through the second half and the longer the game goes. I’m expecting a 42 or more game score.

Tip: Storm

Scoreline: 26-18

Points: Over 40.5
Man Of The Match: Jahrome Hughes ($4.80)

Best Any Time Try Options: Alamoti ($3.40), Howarth ($3.90), Coates ($2.24), Jahrome Hughes ($3.30)

My two anchor plays for anytime try are Coates and Howarth