NRL Finals | Free Preview | Eels v Raiders | 2022

-3.5 Eels v Raiders

Ground: Parramatta

-6.5 market line

41.5 total points (market position)

Eels have won 4 of last 6 at home

Raiders have won 6 of last 10 head to head

At the Line Raiders have covered 10 of last 14 (71%) v Eels

At the Line Raiders have covered 21 of last 31 (68%) as a road / away underdog

At the Line Eels are only 7 from last 17 (40%) when Fav

At the Line Eels are only 3 from last 10 (33%) when Fav of -4.0 or more

Raiders have won their last 5 and 8 of their last 9

Raiders record this season when Fogarty has played is 10 and 4, win strike rate of 71%

The late news now is that Moses will play which I find somewhat surprising but he has been cleared by an independent doctor and will start. If he is feeling no ill effects form that heavy knock last week and is not too gun shy in the contest then his in and role is significant.

Looks a very good game with so many angles. The Eels went with the Panthers last week for the opening 20 or so minutes, and had a few shots at them but just couldn’t break their high quality scramble and defence, they then started to fade into the early second half and had no match for Nathan Cleary and then the loss of Moses for the last 20 or so was the final nail. Their mental composure and approach to this week will be interesting, especially if the Raiders can start strongly and go with them or we see any early Raiders points, having lost 6 of their last 8 finals games and their losing record in finals such a focus and talking point all around them – can they maintain their focus and stand up? What also comes into play here is that they have over the course of this season shown some inconsistencies in being up and down week after week, and losing games or playing poorly to expectation (and their poor record as a fav or at covering the line).

Technically if well exposed they have some longer term problems in defence down each edge, and once again Waqa Blake has been exposed for his issues under the high ball. The Raiders play a strong game through the middle but importantly Tapine and Papalii have a high quality off load game that then creates second phase play and helps break up the defence and or put them on the back foot and create some room. Their halves, two quality edge back rowers and then Timoko and Kris come into play down either edge, and its just the sort of attack build up that will trouble the Eels. 

Dylan Brown has been in quality form, he’ll need to take a leading role once again. His and Moses kicking game will be key, the Raiders do have errors in them, you’ll want to have them playing a lot of footy off their back end to try and expose this. The weakness for mine tho has been some of the bench depth and rotation, Cambpell-Gillard and Paulo work so well through the middle but this drops away significantly with impact and muscle through the middle 30 minutes of the game, while Jake Arthur’s role and value is questionable other then being a back up. The first 25 minutes is important, off the back of the obvious yardage that their two big middle guys will bring they need to use the room to bring their two edge running back rowers into play and open the raiders up, move them around and mount some points and confidence off which to then be playing with.