NRL Team by Team Detailed Season 2022 Preview

NRL 2022 Season Preview

What’s an NRL Coach worth? And why Defence matters!

So what is a quality Coach worth? Experience, expertise and more often than not with longevity comes a successful record. For mine another key factor for success and longer term survival is an ability to understand and be able to coach defence, in my opinion the toughest thing to do in this role. The stand out here is Craig Bellamy, not only has his sides played finals 15 out of 16 seasons his teams every season are either top 2 or top 4 in defence. Season after season of player list rotation over 15 seasons he gets it right. Bennett’s long term record also speaks for itself, staggering record that across 34 years he has been in the finals 29 times and was there again in a Grand Final last year.

Why Defence Matters

It matters. 12 of the last 13 Premiership winners finished the season in the top 2 defensive sides.

Most coaches get it, but in my opinion most can’t actually coach it. Even in today’s structured and at times robot like game of physical chess (especially when those at the top of the table are matched up) the obvious begins to stand out with those who get it, and can coach it.

As already noted Bellamy’s long term record is just something else, across all of his seasons at the Storm each year they are always a minimum of top 4 in defence per game more often than not top 2 and season after season we see them competitive into some part of September. Robinson has fast becoming another stand out. Hasler’s long term record is very good and you only have to look and appreciate what he has done in his first stint at the Sea Eagles, then the defensive impact he had at the Bulldogs and now in returning to the Sea Eagles over the last two seasons he has dropped near 6 points per game off their defence offering. The penny finally dropped in Canberra a few years ago that being attacking superstars was only half the battle and after some key coaching staff changes and 4 months of intensive off season focus a few seasons back they then dropped near 6 pts a week off their defence and bingo made a Grand Final. It’s noticeable tho that this improvement it has not been sustained.

The other notable improver through his career has been Ivan Cleary and on the back of positioning his team and some of their youth as a top of table contender he has also turned them into a quality defensive outfit. In the last two seasons this improvement continued, from 19 per game average in the 3 years prior to season 2020 to then last season becoming the benchmark at 11.9 per game – oh, and what do you know – a Title!

The Eels are a case in point. Each of the last few seasons they have failed to compete with the top of table teams when it has mattered at the back end of the season, and last year in their final 7 games leaked an average of 27 pts a week the majority of those games against the pointy end of the table.

What is also always interesting at this stage each year – the pre season and a ball is yet to be kicked in anger is the rose coloured glasses approach that so many take in talking up how this team or that team has recruited so well and will be jumping up the table – yet fail to recoginise that they are the same team who last season were leaking 20 or 30 points a week! (A) does not then equal (B) – you need to know and be able to coach it to then get the D right before any of the rest starts to matter and then equals major table improvement and winning results! Just look where I started with this little spiel, 12 of the last 13 premierships were won by a team who had a top 2 defensive record…

Last Seasons Table:

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2022 Table Forecast

These ratings are finalised using a whole range of performance data across recent seasons, team list changes (ins and outs), home and away advantage/records, MrG’s personal feel and opinion and then a forecast simulation of all weekly results for this coming seasons based on all of this criteria to finalise and forecast the likely final table positions. I have used this method for the past 9 seasons with it then normally providing an accurate forecast of those expected to perform well (top 2, top 4, top 8) and those who look at significant risk and likely in the bottom half or bottom 4 of the final table. The obvious longer term unknown now is the impact of a new coach, major list overhauls and or new major signings, luck with the draw (or rule changes on the run..) and more importantly the obvious unknown impact of key injuries or off field indiscretions. This is how I see the overall longer term table make up to which then as the season unfolds further adjustments will be made for major key injury outs or significant improvement or plummet in performance.

Notes:

The top 4 if not top 6 pick themselves, few adjustments across a few of them but given last seasons table had a long tail and a season with an excessive number of blow out scores and lop-sided results it’s difficult to start the season marking any of them down harshly.

Some question over the Eels and their inability to a) beat the top of table teams when it matters at the back end of the season and b) the fact that they have few outs and 3 already signing elsewhere for next season, there has to be some risk of them sliding across the season.

As we have seen through recent seasons (and last yr 3 teams finished equal 8^th) the next 4 spots look a bit of a log jam. For a range of reasons including some key youth talent I have the Dragons with (potential) improvement; Sharks a new coach, return to Shark Park and some key signings also on the up; few question marks to resolve themselves on Titans (spine quality and performance) and Raiders and so 4 teams who each look in the mix to compete for and fill spots 7 and 8 (remembering that last season 3 teams tied for 8th spot).

While the Knights made the 8 last yr their record against teams above them was very poor, they now lose Pearce (UK) and Brailey to longer term injury, they can’t be but marked down and have a major question over how they compete longer term this season (and we have already seen significant market moves for them to miss the top 8 and or finish bottom of the table (16^th).

Tigers, Broncos and Bulldogs have each been very active with recruitment and while I can see overall improvement, I can’t see any of the three stretching that to compete for a bottom of the top 8 or mid table spot. Should things turn sour for any one of these three then they are also not that far off a potential bottom two finish. The base of the table again looks to have a long tail with the Warriors and Cowboys also in this mix with numerous questions and issues across their list, depth, overall quality and defensive application across a long season. Very hard to be optimistic about either bouncing up above 12^th spot this season.

MarketWatch Podcast – Hear our individual thoughts for each team here on the Pre Season Podcast discussion!

Tristan Merlehan & Jimmy Smith & MrG talk us through their pre season thoughts across all teams in the lead in to this years NRL season!

Podcast Part 1

We discuss and preview each of last years bottom 8 teams –

Sharks; Raiders; Dragons; Warriors; Wests Tigers; Broncos; Cowboys; Bulldogs

Spotify Podcast Link Here

Apple Podcast Link Here

Podcast Part 2

We discuss and preview each of last years top 8 teams –

Storm; Panthers; Rabbitohs; Sea Eagles; Roosters; Eels; Knights; Titans

Spotify Podcast Link Here

Apple Podcast Link Here

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NRL – MrG – Reading The Play

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is a long term avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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