NRL Team by Team Detailed Season 2023 Preview

NRL 2023 Season Preview

The quality of Coach, his methods and defence is my starting point for a season and then each week for any individual contest.

What’s an NRL Coach worth? And why Defence matters!

So what is a quality Coach worth? Experience, expertise and more often than not with longevity comes a successful record. For mine another key factor for success and longer term survival is an ability to understand and be able to coach defence, in my opinion the toughest thing to do in this role. The stand out here is Craig Bellamy, not only has his teams played finals 17 out of 18 seasons his teams every season are either top 2 or top 4 in defence. Season after season of player list rotation over 18 seasons he gets it right.

Why Defence Matters

It matters.

13 of the last 14 Premiership winners finished the season in the top 2 defensive sides.

Most coaches get it, but in my opinion most can’t actually coach it. Even in today’s structured at times robot like game of physical chess (especially when those at the top of the table are matched up) the obvious begins to stand out with those who get it, and can coach it.

As already noted Bellamy’s long term record is just something else. Robinson fast becoming another stand out. Hasler’s long term record is very good and you only have to look and appreciate what he has done in his first stint at the Sea Eagles, then then defensive impact he had at the Bulldogs and then in returning to the Sea Eagles last season he dropped near 6 points per game off their defence and rocketed them up the table. The penny finally dropped in Canberra that being attacking superstars was only half the battle and after some key coaching staff changes and 4 months of intensive off season focus they to dropped near 6 pts a week off their defence and bingo – made a Grand Final.

The other notable improver through his career has been Ivan Cleary and on the back of positioning his team and some of their youth as a top of table contender he has also turned them into a quality defensive outfit. In the last three seasons this improvement has continued, from 19 per game average in the three years prior to season 2020 to then the last two seasons becoming the benchmark at the top of the table – oh, and guess what – two back  to back premiership titles!

The Eels are a case in point. Each of the last few seasons they have failed to compete with the top of table teams when it has mattered at the back end of the season and while finally making the GF last year they were still to concede 20 pts a week – and in the big game itself were to leak 28 pts. They will now face season 2023 with some quality player losses.

What is also always interesting at this stage each year – the pre season and a ball is yet to be kicked in anger is the rose coloured glasses approach that so many take in talking up how this team or that team has recruited so well and will be jumping up the table – yet fail to recoginise that they are the same team who last season were leaking 20 or 30 points a week! (A) does not then equal (B) – you need to know and be able to coach it to then get the D right before any of the rest starts to matter and then equals major table improvement and winning results! Just look where I started with this little spiel, 12 of the last 13 premierships were won by a team who had a top 2 defensive record…

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2023 Table Ratings & Forecast

These ratings are finalised using a whole range of performance data across recent seasons, team list changes (ins and outs), home and away advantage/records, MrG’s personal feel and opinion and then a forecast simulation of all weekly results for this coming seasons based on all of this criteria to finalise and forecast the likely final table positions. I have used this method for the past 8 seasons with it then normally providing an accurate forecast of those expected to perform well (top 2, top 4, top 8) and those who look at significant risk and likely in the bottom half or bottom 4 of the final table. The obvious longer term unknown now is the impact of a new coach, list overhauls and or new major signings, luck with the draw and the obvious unknown impact of key injuries or off field indiscretions, but in the final 8 weeks prior to the new season start I have worked through as much of this as possible to then piece together a ratings assessment.

Typical of the ongoing impact of the salary cap and now and additional team for 2023 each forcing a spread of talent we will see a log jam of teams competing for spots on the table between spots #5 and #12 – where a key injury (or two) or ounce of luck (or bad luck) can mean the difference between finishing 7^th and 10^th.

For the benefit of a rating number here each team is rated out of 5. I will have the Dolphins starting the season in 17th spot and a likely rating of 3.4 (and the lowest I have rated a team at season start in the last 10 yrs).

The rating starting point is end 2022 season, with the Panthers off a top pre grand final rating of 5.0

The key rating metrics are Coach quality, team list and strength, key roles (#9, 7, 6 and 1) and importantly the ability to defend.

2023 Table Forecast

Panthers
Roosters
Cowboys
Storm
Rabbits
Sharks

Raiders
Broncos
Eels
Eagles

Bulldogs
Titans
Warriors
Tigers

Knights
Dragons

Dolphins

Top 6 look very similar to last season but I have the Eels sliding. Expect that we then see three to 8 teams in the normal mid table log jam fighting out for 7th and 8th spots, where luck, schedule and key injury outs will play a big part toward who then finishes where. I have the Raiders, Broncos and Eels rated at the top of this list. The base of table then falls away, plenty of focus on if the Knights can improve, Dragons look in for another tough season (and considerably weaker than they were last season) and Bennett’s Dolphins up against in in year one.

Key Rating Data 

A few notes:

The top 6 pick look to pick themselves with a few adjustments across a few of them and for mine they will be the benchmark around what we measure form this season.

The Panthers while winning back to back titles now face the ongoing impact of success and the loss of quality. Their junior development has been first class for many years, interesting watch of how they balance up this year, but the starting point has to be a mark down.

Roosters look very strong and I expect the pointy end of the table measuring stick. Quality system, very big and strong up front, class and quality in the halves and key roles at #9 and #1, versatility and depth. Injury issues (ongoing) derailed much of this season when it mattered last year, keen to be with them in 2023.

The Cowboys jumped very quickly and high to a new level last year but the foundations of their new coach look very solid, abled with the return of a quality home ground advantage and again a good draw. Sharks had a very good 2022 on the back of a new quality coach, I expect they continue the up.

Storm with Bellamy and the stand out stars at #9, 7, 6 and 1 will be much like they have always been if injury free. Rabbits showed in the second half of last yr that they to with Mitchell playing can match it with the pointy end of the table.

Happy to be against the Eels. They have lost some high quality from key roles (Niukore (Warriors) Papali’i (Wests Tigers) Stone (Dolphins) Kaufusi (Cronulla) Mahoney, Hayze Perham (Canterbury) Opacic (England), some depth and now also face a tough draw. I have them borderline making the top 8, expect that they don’t.

Raiders have the softest draw I can remember, seriously I’m not sure I could have deliberately come up with something as weak as this (by comparison to what most others face). The loss of Elliott and Sutton should be offset by their depth and the gain of promising Knights player Saulo. A soft draw don’t win you games or assure you of a table position, but gee it’s a nice starting point.

The Broncos were difficult to place, their best last year and the influence of Reynolds was top 6 form, but if Renno is missing for any length of time and or they also roll over with some of the rubbish we saw toward their end of 2022 they can be a bottom 6 side. They should benefit from a year’s further experience and maturity to much of their list off last year.

Eagles an interesting watch with new coach Seibold and if some of the team unity issues that derailed their end to last year are all back on track. They have lost some quality (Foran and Walker in particular) and clearly a big watch on how many games Turbo plays.

I am expecting a positive season from the Warriors and they starting a climb back up the table. New coach Webster has had some quality raps on him for a few seasons and his calm approach off working under some very good mentors might be just what they need, while is will be a welcome positive to see them back playing out of Auckland.

Bulldogs, Titans and Tigers present as teams looking for change and learnings off the back of recent seasons, and two of them start with new coaches and direction. All three (Bulldogs, Titans and Tigers) have been busy with some quality recruitment and list improvements. The Knights also have key change at #7, #6 and #1 but its hard to rate their overall list or likely defensive issues any stronger than its been.

I have been vocal of my criticism of Griffin and the Dragons offering through recent seasons, they now look far weaker than they have been, the loss of the promising Ramsey is a critical out while major doubt exists on who plays and to what level of quality at #9, 6 and 1 to help Hunt. Looks a bottom 4 season for me and desperate need for an overhaul of head coach thinking and their list.

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Draw

Firstly lets acknowledge that the draw is not even and has significant holes and inequity in it every year, and much of its working are to suit a tv schedule and ratings. So many are disadvantaged, and many carry a higher load than others. But there’s no doubt it’s a key factor on final outcome.

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Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is a long term avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

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