NRL Grand Final | Free Preview | 2023

Game Overview

Panthers

1 Dylan Edwards 2 Sunia Turuva 3 Izack Tago 4 Stephen Crichton 5 Brian To’o 6 Jarome Luai 7 Nathan Cleary 8 Moses Leota 9 Mitch Kenny 10 James Fisher-Harris 11 Scott Sorensen 12 Liam Martin 13 Isaah Yeo

14 Jack Cogger 15 Lindsay Smith 16 Spencer Leniu 17 Luke Garner

18 Tyrone Peachey 19 Matt Eisenhuth 20 Zac Hosking 21 Luke Sommerton 22 Thomas Jenkins

Broncos

1 Reece Walsh 2 Jesse Arthars 3 Kotoni Staggs 4 Herbie Farnworth 5 Selwyn Cobbo 6 Ezra Mam 7 Adam Reynolds 8 Thomas Flegler 9 Billy Walters 10 Payne Haas 11 Kurt Capewell 12 Jordan Riki 13 Patrick Carrigan

14 Tyson Smoothy 15 Brendan Piakura 16 Kobe Hetherington 17 Keenan Palasia

18 Corey Oates 19 Martin Taupau 20 Corey Jensen 21 Jock Madden 22 Tristan Sailor

Stats

Panthers have won their past 8 finals matches

Panthers have conceded just 10 tries in their last 8 finals games

Panthers have covered line 16 of last 23 (69%) v top 3 teams

Broncos have covered line 13 of last 30 (43%) v top 4 teams

Broncos have covered the line 6 of last 7 when interstate

Broncos have won last 4 when an underdog

6 of the last 9 Grand Finals have been points under

When the Panthers have been favoured by 9 or less the points 8 of the last 10 have resulted in points under, and this is 6 of last 7 when favoured by 4 or less

At the Broncos last 7 games as an underdog the points under has resulted 5 of 7 games

Panthers last 6 games at Homebush have all resulted in points over

Preview

Surprise surprise we have the two teams with the best defence who also finished with in top 3 and then won week one and had the week off through to the Grand Final! History once again repeats.

I think both teams come through a similar finals run. Both have played the same two teams in different order, and bot have won convincingly and their defence has been to the fore!

Panthers

v Warriors 32-6

v Storm 38-4

Broncos

v Storm 26-0

v Warriors 42-12

Panthers season to date D at 13 per week, the Broncos 17.7

Both turn up now at all but full strength and with no outs from the last week. Conditions are forecast for very warm day and a dry track.

We have all heard the old boxing line that styles make fights, well indeed that’s exactly what we look to have here with two contrasting styles but banged up together it becomes what looks a very an exciting contest.

The Broncos will bring their high octane attack style, plenty of off load and ball shift and then speed and strike – if allowed to. The Panthers bring a well refined system, high quality tough rigid defence and some smarts and strike of their own, but they look to bury you first..

The key to the game is the offload and second phase play, and if the Broncos can loosen this up, take some chance, break the Panthers up and strike. And it stick, as under a GF pressure against high quality defence then error can occur.

Many have been excited with the Broncos offering last week v the Warriors, but I’d caution that the game turned into near touch footy, lots of open space and room to play, 23 offloads, lots of run meters and sparking attack, and at times it looked like 62 not 42 was going to be the Broncos likely points tally. I expect this will be much much tighter.

If we look back at Rd12 (Broncos at home v Panthers), and then the Panthers through recent weeks the quality of their defence in meeting you physically and looking to shut things down is quality. Certainly they can be beat through the middle, and the Storm and Eels (last round) have shown some of this formula, meet them very lots of aggression front on, and take them on. But for all of their quality and strengths in low error and miss and leaks for mine the Broncos defence in particular their middle is too polite, they don’t whack you, there is no significant aggression, they generally just do a very tidy job.

So instead of what we saw the Broncos gifted last week v the Warriors with near 50 mtrs per set and 3,500 run meters and 23 offloads I expect we’ll see a much tighter game far more of the norm of 38 to 39mtrs per set and 12 to 14 offloads and plenty of quality defence from both of them. A tough old GF arm wrestle, limited chances and take and execute each the best you can.

For mine the Panthers Storm game for a long way early on was much closer than it looked, and once again Bellamy went with a very physical and aggressive approach through the middle, and it was working. The bombed a certain try, left another few chances wanting and then murdered their own position with high self error. They were close, but couldn’t sustain it – but the key was the physical aggression.

Tactically the Panthers also look to have made a further key tweak through the last few weeks that I think is important. If we look back in depth at the rd12 clash in Brisbane (Reynolds didn’t play) the Panthers targeted heavily in their red zone attack (final 40 mtr) at the Broncos right edge defenders, in particular Staggs and Cobbo. This edge has been problematic for the Broncos D and exposed on occasions, both can be prone to key misses and Cobbo also has a habit of racing up early and out of the line and can get caught out or position. The Panthers scored their first try in this left corner (Turuva) in this game and certainly had some joy on this edge through out this contest.

A few games ago Ivan Cleary moved Crichton back across to play left edge, even with the pending (and now) return of Tago who has been playing left side for the last 18 months and I suspect that his longer term planning was for this match up a few weeks away should they then play the Broncos as they do in the GF. Crichton has previously played a lot of footy on the left edge, has a great combination with Luai, is obviously a strike attack centre who finds the try line. But, he is also a very good defender who will then defend the edge that the Broncos love as Walsh’s favoured side for his at speed attacking runs then with Staggs and Cobbo on his outside. Crichton is also an intercept specialist and Walsh has been prone to offering up a few intercept balls, so the Crichton move has three strings to the bow, attack finishing, defence and the pressure of pass intercept.

I certainly expect that the Panthers will target this left edge as their major focus. The other key watch is for Cleary and Luai to take the line on themselves, in particular late in to the half when forwards and defensive lines have some fatigue and are just expecting and defending to likely link passing out an edge. Cleary had two individual runs in the rd12 game for a late try and a first half near miss, and if as expected Luai is seeing plenty of ball he also has a nice left foot step and play back in and straighten up at the line. We also saw a nice set play last week by the Panthers with a decoy and Cleary on the sweep to the left edge and then a pass to Turuva to score.

Clearly the Broncos also bring plenty of outstanding strike, and with some quality go forward and some offload and second phase play that sticks Reynolds, Walsh (right) and Mam (left) will get their chances. Walsh as we know can be electric, and they then have quality strike with Staggs and Farnworth and then finishing on each outside edge. Farnworth was super (again) last week and I’m sure they will be looking to set up some room and then quality ball for him isolate and play one on one at Tago given his obvious poor miss last week on Olam.

Grand Finals like any big game are about the key players, the key moments, taking them and then icing them and we have a great match up and lots of intriguing contests here. Fisher-Harris, Leota, Yeo and then Leniu against Haas, Flegler and Carrigan, the two sets of halves, two outstanding fullbacks and then workers and strike on each edge for each team, it really does look a cracking contest.

The Panthers are hard to go past and I marked them with a line handicap of 4.5, we can’t underestimate the benefit of the experience that they have, they know this day and finals pressure very well now (won their last 8 finals games) and we have seen them build and rise through their gears as each game has progressed through the last few weeks. Many also underestimate the quality of their defence, 13 a week all year long and then conceding 6 and 4 I their two finals games (and conceding just 10 tries in their last 8 finals games) they are a very tough nut to crack. The Broncos have been top one or two all season, went with in a whisker of the minor premiership and have then also shown why they are the rightful challenger through the last few weeks – but they now meet the benchmark and will need to make things stick.

Tip

Panthers 22-16

Points

The marker has been set at 38 and I think that looks right. I lean to 38 or less but no real interest in getting involved. 6 of the last 9 GF’s have been lower scoring and points under, and but for some late junk time scoring last year it was also heading under as well.   

Any Time Try

Certainly keen to focus on the Panthers left edge, Turuva $2.48)  looks a lock, I like Crichton ($2.64) and Luai ($4.90) as options and the other obvious play would be Turuva + Toó ($4.86) – the two of them have an outstanding strike rate of coming up with tries in the same game.

Cobbo, Arthars, Staggs and Farnworth and then Mam look the obvious. With some potential left edge focus Farnworth ($3.20) and Arthars ($2.72) would be my pick.

Man Of The Match | Clive Churchill Medal

Rep players (34 of the last 37 MoM award winners) and Halves & Fullbacks (22 of the last 37) traditionally dominate this award. Given the potential play to the Panthers left edge and how often he is likely to handle the ball and be involved I thought Luai ($23.00) looked a nice play at a big price.

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Jimmy Smith (SEN) is joined by Tristan Merlehan (TopSport) & Gerard Condon (@ReadingThePlay) to preview the 2023 NRL & NRLW Grand Finals before a quick look at the weekend’s Racing and week 4 of the NFL.