NRL Tips Round 1 | Free

NRL Tips Round 1 | Free Game Preview

Dragons vs. Bulldogs

Kogarah
+3.5 market line
39.5 total points (market position)

Dragons have lost 4 of the last 6 at ground
Bulldogs have won 4 last 5 head to head

This looks an excellent contest.

Archrivals the Dragons and Bulldogs were two significant improvers in 2024. Both teams showed considerable improvement in their performance and will be fired up to start the season with a positive start, a win, and two valuable competition points. 

The Dragons exceeded expectations in their first year under coach Shane Flanagan but bottled a finals opportunity with a late fadeout, while the dual departure of Zac Lomax and Ben Hunt clouds this year’s campaign. 

Clint Gutherson, Lachlan Ilias, and Damien Cook line up in a new-look Dragons spine, while Valentine Holmes adds match-winning class at the center, and Emre Guler comes straight into the front row. 

Whether Ilias and Kyle Flanagan are capable of giving the Saints enough impetus in the halves, and whether they boast enough grunt through the middle of the field, are huge question marks. 

The Bulldogs surged to sixth and their first finals appearance in eight years with Cameron Ciraldo’s methods bearing fruit, and recruits Stephen Crichton, Bronson Xerri and Connor Tracey coming up trumps. Viliame Kikau, Matt Burton and Reed Mahoney also rediscovered their best.

Blake Wilson and the returning Marcelo Montoya are on the wings with Jacob Kiraz out injured, while Sitili Tupouniua makes his club debut off the bench in a team that is otherwise only missing the suspended Josh Curran and reserve Kurtis Morrin from their qualifying final 17. 

Bulldogs have had the advantage of this rivalry in the past two seasons, winning all three encounters. Last year the Bulldogs pumped the Dragons 44-12 at Accor Stadium in Round 12 and 28-10 at Jubilee in Round 23. Matt Burton scored three tries and 36 points across the two games. 

The Dragons trialed well, with strong offerings in wins over the Roosters and Rabbitohs, while the Bulldogs’ pre-season form was more modest. However, trial form means little now. 

I have the Dragons rated off a higher position than the markets, and so I have always had this game marked much closer at 1.5. The line has been moving (was 6.5) significantly for the last week and now, on the back of likely Bulldogs late outs, is down to 3.5. Flanagan is noted for getting his teams up to play, so I expect they’ll be pumped and ready to rock here. Generally, their best is also when playing at either of their two home grounds.

There is a lot to look for here, so keep a keen eye on both teams play and how this one unfolds. I think the Dragons can win first up, and I like them with the plus line.

Tip: Dragons
Play: Dragons at line