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NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 2

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NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 2 Preview. Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is an avid student of the game and provides his NRL Tips and previews each week at Reading The Play. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Gerard provides his expert NRL tips and content each week for our Reading The Play followers and subscribers.

NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 2 | 2024

Venue

NSW are 4-1 all-time at the MCG and have won the last 3 at the venue

The venue is a neutral ground and doesn’t have the same influence that a game in Brisbane or Sydney does

nrl tips state of origin mcg melbourne

Game 2 of a series

Game 1 losers who play at home or at a neutral venue in Game 2 have won 7 of the last 8

It is 14 years since we had a 3-0 clean sweep of an Origin series

Weather

Typical Melbourne mid winter, very cold and damp. Light rain Tuesday (1-5mm).

Ref

Klein so we’ll see his typical mess at the play the ball and ruck and a shorter 10mtrs

Likely Team & Edge Set Ups

Stephen Crichton to shift to NSW right edge which will tighten up the defence here, same QLD attack edge that they will favour with Walsh and Hammer. Latrell Mitchell will play left edge v Holmes

NRL Tips State Of Origin

Overview

NSW have made 5 team changes, 4 of whom had they been fit and available would have been selected for game 1. Edwards, Moses, Murray and Watson while Latrell Mitchell comes in for Suaalii who is suspended.

QLD have two changes, Hopgpood and Cobbo omitted (injury) with Kaufusi and Capewell the ins. It’s interesting the swap of Cobbo with Capewell as I think QLD loose the impact and versatility that at his best Cobbo can bring.

Overall I think NSW present with a stronger line up and what looks better balance. Moses has now had two years in and around Origin and brings quality club form, aside from Nathan Cleary he is certainly the best halves option and I expect he plays well. Edwards (unlucky late out game 1) will add plenty from the back while Murray is world class and brings outstanding work rate and at middle footwork and support with the ball. Watson is a pocket dynamo of energy who can change up a game and adds backup at #9 and the versatility to cover numerous other positions. Latrell Mitchell is finally back to some high quality club form and confidence, at his best he can be a weapon on the left edge and I expect he will give Holmes plenty to do down that edge.

QLD will have the benefit of a game 1 win (in Sydney) and some confidence off this. Carrigan (amazing work rate) Cherry-Evans and Tabuai-Fidow (Hammer) were stand outs.

Aside from some of the individual performances Game 1 told us little else given we ended up with a 13 v 12 after just seven minutes and at this level (game smarts) QLD’s ability to play to the NSW right edge and extra man advantage and open NSW up quickly before they made further adjustments in swapping Stephen Crichton across. Aside from the obvious tho I thought NSW did look to struggle with game management, direction and at times kicking game; while both teams at times offered up some loose defence and signs that games 2 and 3 will likely open up more (points).

Am expecting contrasting styles of play here. Maguire and NSW to play more of a power game through the middle 40% to 50% of the park, yardage, field position and then play to some of their attacking strengths. That also offers Edwards, Murray, Moses and later Watson in support second phase play, any of which can get QLD on the back foot and offer edge targeting.

QLD have plenty of speed and attack in their back five and the likes of Walsh and Tabuai-Fidow with speed and their freakish ability can turn a game (and field position) in a moment. I’m sure they look to use this and shift the ball more (left attack edge), and use Walsh not only with his edge sweep plays but also back through the middle and middle edge with set up plays to pop him through a hole and utlise his off and gone acceleration. Much like his coach could do!

On the back of named teams and the five changes to NSW they have been heavily backed, from around $2.30ish to $1.90 within 24 hours to now $1.77 pronounced favs.

I’m with NSW on the back of the teams changes and what looks a stronger line up, Murray, Moses and Edwards in particular bring strengths that will improve them significantly. But it is Origin and not a lot between these two teams. QLD will have confidence off a win and leading the series, NSW some desperation in need to win.

Suggested Play Options

The early option of NSW +2.5 looked too wide

At the current game day pricing happy to stay out of the $1.77

While some of the noise pre game will be around damp cold and likely slippery ground conditions I thought there were signs in game one of some speed and up tempo intent from both teams and some loose defence and I expect we see points and like the over 38.5

Thought the two bets any time try options were Latrell Mitchell $2.50 (was $2.72) and Walsh $3.15. The two together a nice $8.00 option.

Man Of The Match somewhat a lottery play but I favoured Moses $9.00, Mitchell $12.00 or for QLD Walsh $7.50. My one out pick would be Moses.

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Gerard is a weekly contributor to the highly popular NRL Market Watch Podcast with co hosts Jimmy Smith and Tristan Merlehan – a weekly look at all things NRL as the team preview and discuss all the happenings and key topics in the game and preview the full round of match ups and markets in the NRL! We even look to find a weekly Best Bet, maybe an anytime try scorer or same game multi that we like and try and work out who’s turn it is to pay for Lunch with our Lunch Bet challenges!

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NRL – MrG – Reading The Play

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Gerard Condon is a long term avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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