NRL Tips State Of Origin Game 2

Overview

NSW have made 5 team changes, 4 of whom had they been fit and available would have been selected for game 1. Edwards, Moses, Murray and Watson while Latrell Mitchell comes in for Suaalii who is suspended.

QLD have two changes, Hopgpood and Cobbo omitted (injury) with Kaufusi and Capewell the ins. It’s interesting the swap of Cobbo with Capewell as I think QLD loose the impact and versatility that at his best Cobbo can bring.

Overall I think NSW present with a stronger line up and what looks better balance. Moses has now had two years in and around Origin and brings quality club form, aside from Nathan Cleary he is certainly the best halves option and I expect he plays well. Edwards (unlucky late out game 1) will add plenty from the back while Murray is world class and brings outstanding work rate and at middle footwork and support with the ball. Watson is a pocket dynamo of energy who can change up a game and adds backup at #9 and the versatility to cover numerous other positions. Latrell Mitchell is finally back to some high quality club form and confidence, at his best he can be a weapon on the left edge and I expect he will give Holmes plenty to do down that edge.

QLD will have the benefit of a game 1 win (in Sydney) and some confidence off this. Carrigan (amazing work rate) Cherry-Evans and Tabuai-Fidow (Hammer) were stand outs.

Aside from some of the individual performances Game 1 told us little else given we ended up with a 13 v 12 after just seven minutes and at this level (game smarts) QLD’s ability to play to the NSW right edge and extra man advantage and open NSW up quickly before they made further adjustments in swapping Stephen Crichton across. Aside from the obvious tho I thought NSW did look to struggle with game management, direction and at times kicking game; while both teams at times offered up some loose defence and signs that games 2 and 3 will likely open up more (points).

Am expecting contrasting styles of play here. Maguire and NSW to play more of a power game through the middle 40% to 50% of the park, yardage, field position and then play to some of their attacking strengths. That also offers Edwards, Murray, Moses and later Watson in support second phase play, any of which can get QLD on the back foot and offer edge targeting.

QLD have plenty of speed and attack in their back five and the likes of Walsh and Tabuai-Fidow with speed and their freakish ability can turn a game (and field position) in a moment. I’m sure they look to use this and shift the ball more (left attack edge), and use Walsh not only with his edge sweep plays but also back through the middle and middle edge with set up plays to pop him through a hole and utlise his off and gone acceleration. Much like his coach could do!

On the back of named teams and the five changes to NSW they have been heavily backed, from around $2.30ish to $1.90 within 24 hours to now $1.77 pronounced favs.

I’m with NSW on the back of the teams changes and what looks a stronger line up, Murray, Moses and Edwards in particular bring strengths that will improve them significantly. But it is Origin and not a lot between these two teams. QLD will have confidence off a win and leading the series, NSW some desperation in need to win.

Suggested Play Options

The early option of NSW +2.5 looked too wide

At the current game day pricing happy to stay out of the $1.77

While some of the noise pre game will be around damp cold and likely slippery ground conditions I thought there were signs in game one of some speed and up tempo intent from both teams and some loose defence and I expect we see points and like the over 38.5

Thought the two bets any time try options were Latrell Mitchell $2.50 (was $2.72) and Walsh $3.15. The two together a nice $8.00 option.

Man Of The Match somewhat a lottery play but I favoured Moses $9.00, Mitchell $12.00 or for QLD Walsh $7.50. My one out pick would be Moses.