NRL Expert Tips | Finals Week 2 | Roosters v Eagles Free Game Preview 2024

Moore Park
-4.5 market line
46.5 total points (market position)

• Top 4 losers’ week one of finals series have a 83% win strike rate in week two
• Roosters have won 8 of last 12 v Eagles
• Roosters have won last 5 straight v Eagles at Moore Park
• Roosters have covered the line 10 of last 14 off a loss
• Roosters are 60% covering the line v teams outside the top 4 last 61 match ups
• Eagles are only 39% covering the line v teams in Top 4

Numerous key angles to this game for mine.

Firstly the Roosters will be well advantaged off an additional 2 day break and prep here, off a Friday to Saturday turn around as opposed to the Eagles Sunday to Saturday. Next, while at a premium stadium this venue is also the Roosters home track where their record shows they lift and play their best footy, and also have a 5-0 recent head to head record over the Eagles here.

Next, what do we make of the Roosters last week. No doubt the Panthers came to play and were exceptionally strong, dominant through the middle and then room to play and capatilise, plus some astute planning by Ivan to target Sandon Smith on the right and Keary on the left. But, it is also far easier to build the dominance and momentum when you get all the ball and rub of the green calls as they did through the first 30 minutes and then at one stage 70% of the ball and field position, and then a 24-0 half time lead.

Following the half time break and then a more even flow of the game (who would have thought..) the Roosters responded with two tries and a little later had a critical forward pass ruling against them costing them another. They were not going to win, but I am convinced they were closer on the contest than the storyline played out.

Overall the Roosters are yet to measure up against the top 2 in the Panthers and the Storm (and that won’t change this season) and are obviously without Walker into a sudden death game, so no more ifs and buts, its put up or go home. I think they are advantaged being the top 4 side dropping back to this, then at home, extra two day turn around and will get Waerea-Hargreaves back.

The Eagles used their get out of jail card last week with a 12-22 second half escape over the Bulldogs – was this more about the Bulldogs letting this slip..? The Eagles came up with two quality decisions and plays when it mattered, a well coached scrum set play result and then running the ball on the last from well inside their own half for an outstanding try.

I thought for the first 50 minutes at least of this game they looked very flat, and for the second week in a row, and it took a long time to get themselves going. The Bulldogs aimed up physically in the middle to match them (unlike weeks prior) and also did well to slow down the ruck and play the ball speeds. Turbo looks all but busted while others also look like the wear and tear is catching up with them. They have significant issues with their right edge defence which week after week is being exposed and shredded, while young Lehi Hopoate was left stranded and on his own numerous times on their left edge. The Roosters have strengths in attack at targeting and setting up attack strikes down each outside edge, in particular to their right with Suaalii and Tupou, or O’Brien to the right.

The results season to date have been even, the Eagles sprung a nice 21-14 upset at home in round 2 while the Roosters returned serve is a somewhat bizarre round 21 encounter 34-30 at home, after leading very comfortable 28-6 they let the Eagles off the hook through the last 20 minutes including multiple soft intercepts.

The stats and advantage is somewhat compelling for the Roosters here, won the last 5 head to head at the venue; won 8 of the last 12 head to head; the Roosters have a very good record at responding off a loss and that only increases when off a loss and back at home next start while the Eagles overall record v top 4 has not been flash, especially when away from Brookvale.

I mark the Roosters with advantage and it looks the right week. I have expected more of the Eagles through the last two weeks and am concerned that the late escape last week papers over some of their injury and or fatigue issues, and can they go the distance again in a physical 80 minute semi final. I’m happy to oppose.

Roosters by two tries, the early 3.5 looked the right play, still happy to be with the 4.5