NRL Tips Round 23 & Free Game Preview

Newcastle
-10.5 market line
51.5 total points (market position)

Knights have won their past 5 straight against Tigers
Tigers have conceded 40 points or more at 5 of their last 6 games
Knights have only won 2 of their past 6 games at Home
Tigers have only won 1 of their 10 Away games this season

Interesting match up and I’m not convinced this is a 12 point gap game. The two worst attack teams in the comp (Knights 17.3 pts per game) v Tigers (18.3 pts per game) match up, with the Knights advantaged at home.

Throw in to the mix of trying to preview this game the Knights may well be at home but have won just 2 of their last 6 here.. while the Tigers get travel sickness on the road with just the 1 win away this season, but hardly surprising as they sit base of table with just the 4 wins and leaking 30.7 a week.

Both are hard to catch. Knights off a bye and what looked an improved offering last week on the road in Penrith (but that form line has hardly stood up given Panthers efforts v Eels), some of their prior offerings were horrible to Broncos (form line?) and the meek away offering at Brookvale when thrashed. There has been plenty pf coverage of the fact that numerous players have been told they will not be required next season and others under review, so likely not the most harmonious place to be right now and at 8 wins and 13th spot their season imo is well over. They are without Jacob Saifiti, Best and Tuala and now playing with probably their 5th or 6th halves combination..

Tigers have a far stronger and better balanced line up here than for many weeks with the key returns of Sezer, Doueihi and Pole. They have played their best offerings with Sezer at #7 and his return now gives them their best spine offering with Koroisau calling the shots at #9 and then Galvin and Bula. While a rubbish game they did come up with 30 points in attack last week and are at a point of the season where in blooding some of their talented youth they are also playing some carefree ball shift attack and a willingness to open the game right up.

The profile for both is poor in what looks to my eye and open attacking anything could happen game profile. Knights have lost 6 of their last 8 including their last 3 and have been poor at home, the Tigers have lost their last 6 straight including leaking 40 a game in 5 of them. With that sort of rubbish Tigers defence Ponga should have a picnic, but I expect with the key player ins and set up the Tigers will also challenge with plenty of attack and points. With what looks like a dry forecast through the weekend in Newcastle conditions also look dry and perfect for some open play.

Thought the opening 11.5 looked too wide and still so at 10.5. The Knights rarely put an opponent to sleep and have only the one wide margin winning result this season (rd 5 a 30-10 win over the Dragons), they get the right opponent with trash defence but also some attacking play and kicking game with the return of Sezer to challenge the set up. Also of note when dropping back in grade of opponent and playing teams in the bottom 9 of the table (Knights sit 13th) the Tigers have been far more competitive and covered the line in 7 of these last 9 such match ups.
Game points? The Knights normally contest lower scoring games especially at home (7 of last 9 points under) but for me this one looks very loose and against that trend. The Tigers have conceded 40 plus in 5 of their last 6 games while in 4 of the past 5 they have also been involved in total points scores of 78, 70, 64 and 68. Defence looks very optional here.

Happy to be with the Tigers with the plus position and also like the points over 50.5

Tip: Knights

Play: Tigers +10.5 and points over 50.5